First off I would like to send all of our coffee friends in Houston our thoughts and prayers during this unfortunate time. The deluge of rain brought by Hurricane Harvey and the widespread destruction that came with it impacted many people in the region. We hope that all affected will be back up on their feet soon!!
As far as the market goes it has been a somewhat choppy ride to say the least. The report from the GCA that stocks rose 7.4 million bags in July was a surprise. This coupled with a report by the ICO that the forecast for the world coffee production in 2016/2017 rose to an all-time high of 153.9 million bags up from a previously projected 151.6 million bags. Of course this sent the market right back down with about 6 straight days of ending in the red.
The coffee market has been non-reactive to the possible storm damage to coffee warehouses in Houston.
There about 127,696 bags of certs and 222,608 bags eligible for grading in Houston. We have seen non- commercial positions exceeding expectations at 19,012 lots. The addition of 14,892 shorts was the biggest net shift in the fund position since the week of April 18 – 25, 2016. The gross fund long at 30,382 is the smallest it has been since March 8, 2016.
The market continues to look weak as it looks for bad news to help move it on up. Beware that there has been what we call the fall rally in the years past. Our outlook is to continue to add to your position of coffee as needed, as historically we are trading at 1.30, which is a sweet number for fixing. We continue to see coffees offered on a flat priced basis as farmer continue, as they should, to steer away from pricing their coffee against the volatile and unforgiving C market.
Our position is always simple. Book the coffees and qualities that you can’t live without or risk not being able to get them. Remember there are a lot more roasters roasting great quality then when I started back in 1988 and great coffees simply get snapped up. I will be off to Central America in early November and report back on how the crop looks. Until then keep those roasters humming!